I will attempt to keep this posting brief--for even this brief posting will bring out all sorts of vitriol. I would like to make known for any record that I am ashamed that we allowed Saddam Hussein to be executed recently. This should not be confused with any sort of love or respect for the guy--he was after all a brutal tyrant: our brutal tyrant and old friend--but I believe the Bush administration and all those in the chorus joining his praise of this execution are correct in saying that this is a new era for Iraq, yet are gravely wrong about what this new era will be like for Iraq.
Here is why they are wrong:
The execution of Saddam firmly closes his chapter in Iraqi and world history and the televised spectacle firmly drove this home to the many Iraqis who witnessed the event. With that, I cannot argue. Yet this new era brings to mind different things to different Iraqis. To the Shiites and Kurds, the dark chapter of Saddam's rule has come to a close and they can now find relief in his passing. But, particularly to the Shiites, this new era is one which emboldens their spirits to take their place as leaders of the new Iraq as they constitute the majority of the population. The problem with this is that Iraq is now a more divided--and divided with increasing fervidity and hardline thinking/feeling/acting--and the Shiites--now more violent and polarised following the colapse of any sort of government and order in the country--seek to exact the revenge they justly deserve to give to the Sunnis for the 20+ years of brutality of Saddam's rule. To the Kurds, this new era shows the hope and promise of finally realizing their centuries-long dream of running their own country, Kurdistan, an ambition which would further destabilize the region as Turkey would never accept such a position (for the significant minority in that country also seeks to fulfill those same goals, perhaps culminating in a secession from that country).
To the Sunnis, this execution is not the beginning of a new and prosperous chapter. It is the beginning of what to them seems like a long nightmare where they will no longer enjoy their former status as masters of what they feel is their country (the one that Saddam built for them in the last two decades). To those partisans who watched in horror as their strength and shield hung fifteen feet above the ground--without the usual head cloth to protect the audience from the gruesome facial expressions that one exhibits during hanging and eventual death (which includes the launching of the eyeballs from their sockets as a result of the pressure in the head of the executed created by the noose's stranglehold)--this moment ushered in a new era for them in which they will have to exact retribution upon all those who can be compiled into a large camp of executioners. This means not only Shiites and Kurds who eagerly awaited Saddam's death as well as complicit Sunnis who either suffered or dissented during Saddam's reign, but also the United States for actively supporting this execution and reportedly (although I'm seeking verification of the story) expediating the time of execution to coincide with the period of the hajj and the festivities which accompany the celebration. These loyal partisans--and actually anyone who felt attachment to Saddam's reign for the venerable, brief period of order he brought to a land eternally plagued by chaos--will now escalate their attacks throughout the country, ushering in a period of return to the ancient practice of lawlessness known as vendetta killing. These vendettae will be repaid in kind by the Shiite majority and Iraq is now going to disintegrate further into chaos, violence and disorder. With Saddam's execution, there is no longer any figure--let alone any collective power or governing body--in or out of the country (including us) who can unite the people of what is (used to be) Iraq.
Everyone is correct in saying this is a new era following his death. Unfortunately, it will be a period of even more intense violence and greater death, disorder, and suffering; an era which will only end when the country is divided among the three major populations (although not guaranteed this would succeed much faster), or another Saddam comes to power. It's unfortunate to say this, but in even an elementary review of the region's history, this is the history that Iraq is doomed to repeat until there comes a major transformation in the culture, education and society. Pray I'm wrong, but I see few other possibilities for what this new era holds.