Happy New Year; Early Predictions

So it's January 22nd, and here I am ringing in the new year for Across the Aisle. I assume everyone leads a far more interesting life than I (besides Chris, perhaps, who has also noted the considerable sloth-like activity during the past few weeks)...

While I will be likely posting about the whole American Samoa/Minimum Wage issue soon, I thought a good first post of January would be about the upcoming Presidential campaigns. Some more people have thrown their hats into the ring of late, and I would be interested to hear everyone's early predictions as to how the primaries and general election will go.

From wikipedia, here are the candidates who have filed, formed committees, or declared serious interest - official filers are denoted with an asterisk:

Democratic Party:
- Sen. Christopher Dodd (CT)*
- F-Sen. John Edwards (NC)*
- F-Sen. Mike Gravel (AK)*
- Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH)*
- Gov. Tom Vilsack (IA)*
- Sen. Joe Biden (DE)
- Sen. Barack Osama Bin Hussein Obama (IL)
- Sen. Hilary Rodham Clinton (NY)
- Gov. Bill Richardson (NM)
- F-Gen. Wesley Clark (AR)
- Sen. John Kerry (MA)
- Rev. Al Sharpton (NY)

Republican Party:
- Sen. Sam Brownback (KS)*
- John H. Cox (IL)*
- Michael Charles Smith (OR)*
- F-Gov. Jim Gilmore (KS)
- F-Mayor Rudy Guliani (NY)
- Rep. Duncan Hunter (CA)
- Sen. John McCain (AZ)
- F-Gov. Mitt Romney (MA)
- Rep. Ron Paul (TX)
- Rep. Tom Tancredo (CO)
- F-Gov. Tommy Thompson (WI)
- F-Rep. Newt Gingrich (GA)
- Sen. Chuck Hagel (NE)
- F-Gov. Mike Huckabee (AR)
- F-Gov. George Pataki (NY)


At this point both races are quite interesting, although I think the Democratic primary seems to be more of a clash of the titans at this point. Dodd, Clinton, and Edwards are well established and Obama has made himself the face of emergent Democratic politics. Edwards was my favorite in the Democratic party in '04, and I have heard many Democrats have a "we should have picked Edwards over Kerry" mentality. As far as a running mate, Obama's surge in popularity may make him an ideal name for the ticket, and the southeast/midwest ticket would bring many intriguing electoral college scenarios to the table.

The Republican side is far less crystallized at this point. McCain, one would think, is the early front runner, but with the state of the party at present, there could be a surprise candidate who plays the primaries right. The Republican party will be split between those looking for someone who represents the moderates who were silenced in 2000 but have gained momentum in the face of Dubya's decline and those looking for a conservative to be proud of and to rally around after being kicked in the dirt the last few years. I give the edge to the latter and have selected Sen. Brownback as my early pick, but think a moderate from a blue state would be the best idea for a running mate. Rudy Guiliani would be ideal for these purposes and his name on the ticket would help regain the Republican party's former advantage the homeland security department, but this is an impossible marriage of social opposites... I'll go with another New Yorker, George Pataki, making a surprise run on Super Tuesday to gain the VP nod.

I think the general election may hinge on how America views the job the Democratic congress does over the next year... if pressed to pick a winner in my mock '08 standoff I would say Edwards-Obama def. Brownback-Pataki. Edwards-Obama would be a fresh face and a media darling, surely a force to reckoned with in an election as open as '08 is looking to be.

If the Republicans go moderate, I'd say McCain-Guliani brings about some interesting scenarios but will still lose against Edwards-Obama because of weakness in the southeast. It's very hard for a Republican to win these days without FL, NC, etc. in their pocket.