I'm going to throw out a Friedman Unit of my own here. Biden's proposal sounds like something Iraqis would go for and it might be the only remaining option among a host of bad options to stabilize Iraq. I see a number of flaws in the idea but it seems better than trying to arbitrarily unify three ethnic groups under one flag. As we've discussed in prior posts, there's no logical reason for Kurds, Shi'ites, and Sunnis to be "Iraqis." The borders of Iraq were never decided by the Iraqis -- it was a prize of World War I and its future crafted by the British and the League of Nations. So if a primary goal is to help build a nation in which people have some say as to how they're governed, this can't be expected within a framework the Iraqis never established themselves in the first place.
A number of problems with this proposal immediately come to mind. What would be done with regions of mixed ethnic populations, especially Baghdad? Other cities, like Mosul, contain majority ethnic populations but a dangerous number of minorities still live there. This could be a recipe for regional cleansing operations.
Also, Shi'ites would control the oil in the south, the only resource preventing the country from descending into Somalia-like economic conditions. I'm skeptical Sunnis would tolerate Shia prosperity in the south, especially as they descended into desperate poverty. Also, an emboldened Shia sector would undoubtedly ally with Iran in an effort for regional hegemony and further marginalize and corner the Sunnis.
Another major problem is the fundamental existence of a Kurdistan in northern Iraq. Once U.S. troops withdrew, Turkish troops would spill over the border and smash any and all attempts of autonomy -- they made this abundantly clear with their vicious "counter-insurgency" in southeastern Turkey in the late '90s. It's inconceivable for them to allow a model independent Kurdish-Iraqi state to embolden their indigenous Kurdish population.
Still, this plan seems better than a Baghdad coalition government trying to get these three to cooperate. U.S. troop withdrawal is still the best option, but if we have to throw out a few more Friedman Units, Biden's plan seems like the best shot.
Biden's plan
